Benutzer:CoronaChronist

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Corona-Daten

Aktuelle Grafiken

Ich versuche, die Zahlen in den COVID-19-Artikeln aktuell zu halten. Die Ergänzungen erfolgen blockweise für jeweils 6-8 Tage für eine Gruppe von Bundesländern, immer dort, wo die meisten Daten fehlen. Basis sind die Daten, welche das RKI publiziert. Die Bundesländer, die eine besonders hohe Inzidenz aufweisen, werden auch öfters aktualisiert. Verwendet werden nur die offiziellen Zahl des RKI. Diese sind in der Regel einen Tag hintendran, weil das RKI den Tagesabschluss um 00.00 mit Datum des Folgetages veröffentlicht. CoronaChronist (Diskussion) 01:07, 9. Apr. 2021 (CEST)

Corona-Intensivpatienten in Deutschland

In den 12 Tagen vor dem 5. November hatte sich die Zahl der Intensivpatienten mehr als verdoppelt. Die tägliche Steigerung betrug 2 Wochen lang kontinuierlich zwischen 7% und 8%. Bei Fortsetzung dieses Anstiegs hätte es bis zum Ende November über 15.000 Intensivpatienten geben. Damit wären die Intensivkapazitäten in Deutschland für COVID-19 bereits weitgehend erschöpft gewesen, d.h. viele reguläre Intensivpatienten hätten nicht versorgt werden können. Vor etwa 4 Wochen flachte die Kurve ab bis auf etwa 0,6% Steigerung pro Tag. Derzeit herrscht wieder leichter Rückgang von 20% je Woche. Setzt sich der Trend so fort, deutet das auf etwa 4.500 Intensivpatienten Ende Februar und 2.800 Ende März.

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7-Tage-Inzidenz in Deutschland seit Oktober

7-Tage-Inzidenz (Infektionen je 100.000 EW und Woche) in Deutschland während der letzen Wochen) <graph>{"legends":[],"scales":[{"type":"time","name":"x","domain":{"data":"chart","field":"x"},"range":"width","zero":false},{"type":"linear","name":"y","domain":{"data":"chart","field":"y"},"zero":false,"range":"height","nice":true},{"domain":{"data":"chart","field":"series"},"type":"ordinal","name":"color","range":["#ff8000"]}],"version":2,"marks":[{"type":"line","properties":{"hover":{"stroke":{"value":"red"}},"update":{"stroke":{"scale":"color","field":"series"}},"enter":{"y":{"scale":"y","field":"y"},"x":{"scale":"x","field":"x"},"stroke":{"scale":"color","field":"series"},"strokeWidth":{"value":2.5}}},"from":{"data":"chart"}}],"height":200,"axes":[{"type":"x","title":"Datum","scale":"x","format":"%d.%m.","properties":{"title":{"fill":{"value":"#54595d"}},"grid":{"stroke":{"value":"#54595d"}},"ticks":{"stroke":{"value":"#54595d"}},"axis":{"strokeWidth":{"value":2},"stroke":{"value":"#54595d"}},"labels":{"align":{"value":"left"},"angle":{"value":0},"fill":{"value":"#54595d"}}},"grid":true},{"type":"y","title":"Inzidenz","scale":"y","properties":{"title":{"fill":{"value":"#54595d"}},"grid":{"stroke":{"value":"#54595d"}},"ticks":{"stroke":{"value":"#54595d"}},"axis":{"strokeWidth":{"value":2},"stroke":{"value":"#54595d"}},"labels":{"fill":{"value":"#54595d"}}},"grid":true}],"data":[{"format":{"parse":{"y":"number","x":"date"},"type":"json"},"name":"chart","values":[{"y":14.5,"series":"y","x":"2020/10/02"},{"y":15.3,"series":"y","x":"2020/10/04"},{"y":16.2,"series":"y","x":"2020/10/06"},{"y":17.8,"series":"y","x":"2020/10/08"},{"y":20.2,"series":"y","x":"2020/10/10"},{"y":24.3,"series":"y","x":"2020/10/12"},{"y":27.5,"series":"y","x":"2020/10/14"},{"y":31.5,"series":"y","x":"2020/10/16"},{"y":37.2,"series":"y","x":"2020/10/18"},{"y":42.9,"series":"y","x":"2020/10/20"},{"y":48.6,"series":"y","x":"2020/10/22"},{"y":56.2,"series":"y","x":"2020/10/24"},{"y":68.4,"series":"y","x":"2020/10/26"},{"y":80.9,"series":"y","x":"2020/10/28"},{"y":93.6,"series":"y","x":"2020/10/30"},{"y":104.9,"series":"y","x":"2020/11/01"},{"y":114.6,"series":"y","x":"2020/11/03"},{"y":124.2,"series":"y","x":"2020/11/05"},{"y":127,"series":"y","x":"2020/11/07"},{"y":133,"series":"y","x":"2020/11/09"},{"y":139,"series":"y","x":"2020/11/11"},{"y":138,"series":"y","x":"2020/11/13"},{"y":140,"series":"y","x":"2020/11/15"},{"y":143,"series":"y","x":"2020/11/17"},{"y":142,"series":"y","x":"2020/11/19"},{"y":139,"series":"y","x":"2020/11/21"},{"y":141,"series":"y","x":"2020/11/23"},{"y":143,"series":"y","x":"2020/11/25"},{"y":140,"series":"y","x":"2020/11/27"},{"y":136,"series":"y","x":"2020/11/29"},{"y":136,"series":"y","x":"2020/12/01"},{"y":137,"series":"y","x":"2020/12/03"},{"y":134,"series":"y","x":"2020/12/05"},{"y":138,"series":"y","x":"2020/12/07"},{"y":146,"series":"y","x":"2020/12/09"},{"y":149,"series":"y","x":"2020/12/11"},{"y":156,"series":"y","x":"2020/12/13"},{"y":169,"series":"y","x":"2020/12/15"},{"y":174,"series":"y","x":"2020/12/17"},{"y":179,"series":"y","x":"2020/12/19"},{"y":190,"series":"y","x":"2020/12/21"},{"y":197,"series":"y","x":"2020/12/23"},{"y":195,"series":"y","x":"2020/12/25"},{"y":189,"series":"y","x":"2020/12/27"},{"y":161,"series":"y","x":"2020/12/29"},{"y":149,"series":"y","x":"2020/12/31"},{"y":140,"series":"y","x":"2021/01/02"},{"y":141,"series":"y","x":"2021/01/04"},{"y":139,"series":"y","x":"2021/01/06"},{"y":127,"series":"y","x":"2021/01/08"},{"y":137,"series":"y","x":"2021/01/10"},{"y":162,"series":"y","x":"2021/01/12"},{"y":164,"series":"y","x":"2021/01/14"},{"y":151,"series":"y","x":"2021/01/16"},{"y":139,"series":"y","x":"2021/01/18"},{"y":134,"series":"y","x":"2021/01/20"},{"y":123,"series":"y","x":"2021/01/22"},{"y":115,"series":"y","x":"2021/01/24"},{"y":111,"series":"y","x":"2021/01/26"},{"y":108,"series":"y","x":"2021/01/28"},{"y":98,"series":"y","x":"2021/01/30"},{"y":91,"series":"y","x":"2021/02/01"},{"y":91,"series":"y","x":"2021/02/03"},{"y":83,"series":"y","x":"2021/02/05"},{"y":80,"series":"y","x":"2021/02/07"},{"y":76,"series":"y","x":"2021/02/09"},{"y":73,"series":"y","x":"2021/02/11"},{"y":64,"series":"y","x":"2021/02/13"},{"y":60,"series":"y","x":"2021/02/15"},{"y":59,"series":"y","x":"2021/02/17"},{"y":57,"series":"y","x":"2021/02/19"},{"y":57,"series":"y","x":"2021/02/21"},{"y":60,"series":"y","x":"2021/02/23"},{"y":60,"series":"y","x":"2021/02/25"},{"y":62,"series":"y","x":"2021/02/27"},{"y":64,"series":"y","x":"2021/03/01"},{"y":66,"series":"y","x":"2021/03/03"},{"y":64,"series":"y","x":"2021/03/05"},{"y":65,"series":"y","x":"2021/03/07"}]}],"width":800}</graph>

wöchentliche Relativänderung seit 1. August

Der Zuwachs lag zeitweilig bei 70-80% pro Woche. Das bedeutete eine Verdopplung der Zahlen alle 8-9 Tage und eine Verdreifachung alle 13-14 Tage. Danach verringerte sich der Zuwachs auf etwa 5% je Woche und zeigte dann sogar einen leichten Rückgang um dann wieder eine Woche zu steigen. Über die Feiertage nahmen die Zahlen ab. Seit etwa 3 Wochen nehmen die Zahlen um etwa 20% je Woche ab.

Prozentuale Änderung der Zahl der wöchentlichen Infektionen 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Zahl der Infektionen seit 1. August

Noch bis zum August lag die Zahl der Infektionen je Woche deutlich unter 10.000. Später waren es bis zu 160.000.

Gemittelte wöchentliche Anzahl der Infektionen in Deutschland 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Zahl der Toten im Vergleich zu den Infektionen

Die Zahl der Toten folgt im Verlauf der der Infektionen mit etwa 3 Wochen Verzögerung. Die Verschiebung der Daten im Diagramm ist daher so skaliert, dass die zueinander passenden Wellen in etwa untereinander liegen. Bei den Toten fehlt der Abschnitt, dessen Verlauf noch in der Zukunft liegt, weil er Folge der jüngsten Infizierten sein wird. Momentan sieht man den Anstieg der Toten als Folge der Entwicklung der Infektionen Ende Februar. Derzeit sterben etwa 160 Personen am Tag. Für die kommenden Wochen sind ebenfalls noch 150 täglich zu erwarten. Zum Vergleich: In normalen Jahren sterben täglich etwa 275 Personen in Deutschland an Lungenerkrankungen.

Zahl der wöchentlichen COVID-19-Toten in Deutschland 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Hochrechnungen der Toten und Infektionen

Hochrechnung der Infektionen je Bundesland

Die Länder weisen unterschiedliche Verhältnisse zwischen der Zahl der erfassten Infektionen und der bekannten Toten auf, was darauf schließen lässt, dass eine unterschiedlich große Zahl an Infektionen nicht mitgezählt wurde. In der nachfolgenden Tabelle sind die Werte dadurch korrigiert worden, dass für alle Länder ein Todesanteil von 1% angenommen wird, welcher von vielen Wissenschaftlern für COVID19 angegeben wird. Die Summe beläuft sich dann auf etwa 8,8 Mio Infektionen in Deutschland. Nimmt man die von einigen Wissenschaftlern publizierte Mortalität von nur 0,5%, so wären dies bereits bis zu 17 Mio. Infektionen, die für die bisher bekannte Zahl der Toten nötig wäre. Ein derartiger Wert ist auch plausibel, wenn man den vom RKI publizierten Anteil von 1% der infizierten nimmt, welche eine Pneumonie entwickeln und unterstellt, dass rund die Hälfte davon verstirbt. Unterstellt man nun noch, dass man Tote übersehen haben kann, was angesichts von bis zu 3.000 täglichen Toten in DE durchaus wahrscheinlich ist, wäre die Zahl der bisherigen Infektionen nochmals höher. Allerdings wäre diese Anzahl immer noch so gering, dass sie nur eine geringe "Bremswirkung" auf die weitere Ausbreitung der Infektionen hat, zumal eine Infektion keine Immunität nach sich ziehen muss und selbst wenn - diese auch nicht beliebig lange besteht. Nimmt man für die Wirksamkeit einer Infektion im Hinblick auf eine neue Infektionen eine Halbwertszeit von 6 Monaten bei 80% Effizienz an, während grob gerechnet derzeit etwa 6-9 Mio Personen gegen eine Neuinfektion immun. Die bisher etwa 11 Mio doppelt geimpften Personen haben ebenfalls nur einen begrenzten Einfluss auf die weitere Ausweitung. Derzeit sind geschätzt nur 13,0% der Bevölkerung infolge einer Impfung gegen COVID-19 immun. Zusammen könnten es mit den Infektionen etwas über 20% sein, d.h. 80% können sich nach wie vor infizieren.

Hochrechnung der wahrscheinlichen Zahl der Infektionsfälle in Deutschland - Stand 1.Juni 2021
Bevölkerung Infektionen 7. Mai Tote am 31. Mai Hochrechnung 1%
Bundesland MIo Infektionen Inzidenz Tote Tote je 100.000 % Tote je Inf. Fälle Inzidenz
Baden-Württemberg 11,1 461.400 4160 9.970 90,0 2,2% 998.000 8040
Bayern 13,1 609.600 4640 14.960 114,0 2,5% 1.497.000 10050
Berlin 3,7 171.800 4680 3.490 95,0 2,0% 350.000 8540
Brandenburg 2,5 104.400 4140 3.740 148,0 3,6% 375.000 12670
Bremen 0,7 26.000 3820 480 70,0 1,8% 49.000 6370
Hamburg 1,8 73.400 3970 1.570 85,0 2,1% 158.000 7600
Hessen 6,3 270.800 4310 7.350 117,0 2,7% 736.000 10230
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 1,6 41.600 2590 1.130 70,0 2,7% 114.000 6120
Niedersachsen 8,0 245.000 3060 5.630 70,0 2,3% 564.000 6220
Nordrhein-Westfalen 17,9 761.600 4240 16.770 93,0 2,2% 1.678.000 8290
Rheinland-Pfalz 4,1 144.200 3520 3.740 91,0 2,6% 375.000 7990
Saarland 1,0 38.400 3890 1.010 102,0 2,6% 102.000 8940
Sachsen 4,1 270.600 6650 9.700 238,0 3,6% 971.000 20380
Sachsen-Anhalt 2,2 93.600 4260 3.330 152,0 3,6% 334.000 13020
Schleswig-Holstein 2,9 60.200 2070 1.600 55,0 2,7% 161.000 4820
Thüringen 2,1 120.400 5640 4.220 198,0 3,5% 423.000 16970
Deutschland insgesamt 83,2 3.492.000 4200 88.600 107,0 2,5% 8.861.000 9410

Hochrechnung der zu erwartenden Toten in Deutschland

Prognose vom Anfang März

Das Verhältnis von den derzeit 2,8 Mio bekannten Infektionen zu den 2,5 Mio zugrunde gelegten Infektionen lässt rechnerisch noch weitere 6.000 Tote erwarten. Legt man alternativ dazu die aktuelle gemessene Todesrate von 3,1% (bekannte Infektionen / bekannte Tote) zugrunde, ergeben sich bei den derzeit offenen 200.000 Fällen ebenfalls insgesamt 6.800 zu erwartende Tote. Es sind also etwa diese 6000 Tote zu veranschlagen, sobald alle der derzeit offenen Fälle zu einem Ausgang gekommen sein werden.

Da sich die Infektion in diesem Zeitraum aber auch noch weiter entwickeln wird, sind bis Ende April mindestens eben so viele Infektionen zu erwarten, wie derzeit. Dies lässt auf bis zu 200 Tote am Tag = 6.000 Tote im Monat schließen. Damit ist bis Ende März mit rund 76.000 Toten und bis Ende April mit rund 82.000 Toten zu rechnen. Dies wären etwa 10% der Zahl der üblicherweise in Deutschland scheidenden Personen im Jahr. Aufgrund der zu erwartenden Anstiege infolge der neu bekannt gewordenen Mutanten ist aber mit bis zu 25% mehr Toten zu rechnen.

Prognose vom Anfang Juni

Die aktuell Zahl von offenen Fällen legt mindestens weitere 1.100 Tot binnen der nächsten Woche nahe. Für den Monat Juni sind mit rund 3.500 Toten zu rechnen.

Vergleich mit anderen Infektionen

Während der Grippewelle im Halbjahr 2017 / 2018 starben nach Maßgabe der Übersterblichkeit mindestens 20.000, laut anderen Quellen bis zu 30.000 Personen (überhaupt oder verfrüht) an diesem Influenza-Virus. Im besagten Zeitraum von 4-5 Monaten kam es zu über 10. Mio Hausarztbesuchen wegen Grippesymptomen. Rechnet man die durchschnittliche Rate von 30%-50% der Personen, die keine Symptome haben, sind etwa 25 Mio Infektionen zugrunde zu legen. Damit wäre etwa jeder Tausendste an diesem Virus verstorben. In "normalen" Grippejahren liegt der Anteil der Verstorbenen nochmals mindestens eine Zehnerpotenz niedriger. Corona liegt also in der Sterblichkeit bei etwa dem 10-fachen der Grippewelle 2018 und dem 100-fachen der Toten in normalen Grippejahren.